| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | NC State | 17-24 | 1441.3 | -29.3 | 1412.0 | 42.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Campbell | 56-3 | 1412.0 | +0.0 | 1412.0 | 37.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 38-0 | 1412.0 | +42.3 | 1454.3 | 58.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | BYU | 13-34 | 1454.3 | -19.5 | 1434.8 | 17.8% |
| 6 | Sep 25 2025 | W | Army | 28-6 | 1434.8 | +55.3 | 1490.1 | 28.1% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | L | Tulane | 19-26 | 1490.1 | -18.2 | 1471.9 | 27.2% |
| 9 | Oct 16 2025 | W | Tulsa | 41-27 | 1471.9 | +8.9 | 1480.8 | 86.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Temple | 45-14 | 1480.8 | +32.9 | 1513.7 | 68.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Charlotte | 48-22 | 1513.7 | +6.0 | 1519.7 | 90.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Memphis | 31-27 | 1519.7 | +51.6 | 1571.3 | 32.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | UTSA | 24-58 | 1571.3 | -49.2 | 1522.1 | 65.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 42-3 | 1522.1 | +15.2 | 1537.3 | 86.4% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | Pittsburgh | 23-17 | 1537.3 | +52.3 | 1589.6 | 38.4% |